Saudi Arabia’s Energy Mix 2030: Gas Surges as Oil Holds Strong
While oil remains the economic bedrock of Saudi Arabia, natural gas is rapidly rising in prominence and low-carbon investments are gaining traction in the Kingdom. By 2030, Saudi Arabia’s energy mix will still lean heavily on oil, but gas will take on a bigger role in power generation, offshore fields will drive capacity growth, and low-carbon investments will slowly gain ground. It’s a strategy built on pragmatism, meeting rising demand while laying the groundwork for a more flexible, resilient energy future.
Gas to Power 72% of the Grid as Demand Climbs
Across the Middle East, natural gas now powers around 72% of electricity generation. In Saudi Arabia, that share is rising fast as the Kingdom leans on gas to meet growing demand, driven by population growth, industrial expansion, and rising temperatures. The Jafurah unconventional gas field is central to this push, with output projected to grow by over 40% by the end of the decade.
The flexibility and reliability of gas-fired power make it a critical piece of the energy puzzle, especially as the Kingdom scales up renewables. While solar and wind are gaining ground, gas remains the stabilizing force behind the grid.
Oil Still Reigns, But Offshore Fields Take the Lead
Despite the diversification drive, oil isn’t going anywhere. Saudi Arabia is targeting a production capacity of 12 million barrels per day, and much of that growth is coming from offshore fields like Berri, Marjan, and Zuluf. These developments are designed to offset declining output from aging onshore giants such as Ghawar.
Saudi Aramco is also tackling operational challenges head-on, including water management issues at mature fields. The goal is clear: maintain output while improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact.
$400 Billion in Projects Signal Long-Term Commitment
Across the Middle East, more than $400 billion in energy projects are planned through 2035, and Saudi Arabia is leading the charge. A significant portion of this investment is flowing into gas and offshore developments, reflecting a strategic pivot toward more sustainable and flexible energy sources.
Internationally, Saudi Aramco is expanding its footprint with stakes in Peru LNG and MidOcean Energy. These moves are part of a broader ambition to become a global LNG powerhouse, reinforcing the Kingdom’s role in global energy security.
Local Supply Chains Get a Boost
To support this massive energy buildout, Saudi Arabia is reshaping its supply chain. The In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) program aims to increase local procurement to 70%, creating jobs, fostering domestic manufacturing, and boosting technology transfer.
This localization strategy isn’t just about economics—it’s about resilience. By building a robust in-country supply network, the Kingdom is better positioned to weather global disruptions and keep its energy ambitions on track.
Low-Carbon Investments Gain Ground, Slowly but Surely
While oil revenues continue to fund much of the Kingdom’s energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia is gradually ramping up its low-carbon investments. Carbon capture, clean hydrogen, and renewables are all part of the mix, though they still represent a smaller slice of the budget compared to traditional hydrocarbons.
The approach is pragmatic: optimize existing oil and gas assets for emissions efficiency while laying the groundwork for a cleaner future. It’s a balancing act, but one that aligns with both economic and environmental goals.
A Balanced Future in a Volatile World
The Saudi Arabia energy mix 2030 is a study in contrasts—anchored in oil, powered increasingly by gas, and cautiously embracing clean energy. With strategic investments, international partnerships, and a focus on supply chain resilience, the Kingdom is positioning itself as a reliable and forward-looking energy leader.
In a world of shifting market dynamics and rising geopolitical tensions, Saudi Arabia’s energy strategy is clear-eyed and adaptive. It’s not just about keeping the lights on—it’s about shaping the future of energy.
